Russia's Warning Triangle: The Strategic Threat to NATO in Ukraine

• Russia has adopted an "aggressive triad" of strategies that are causing Ukraine to cede territory.
• The key to reviving Russian airpower has been a surprisingly low-tech weapon: glide bombs.
• Glide bombs break apart the reinforced positions where Ukraine's soldiers must halt the advancing Russian forces.

As the conflict in Ukraine reaches its third anniversary, Russia appears to have developed an effective strategy to exhaust Ukraine's military forces.

This "offensive triangle," as British military experts call it, poses a three-pronged danger with infantry, drones, and glide bombs This suggests that Ukraine cannot cease. It also prompts the inquiry of whether NATO should be concerned about this deadly combination.

Up until now, these Russian strategies have not led to any significant advances on the battlefield. However, they continue to achieve modest yet consistent territorial gains at considerable expense. Their main accomplishment has been gradually eroding both the physical capabilities and fighting spirit of Ukrainian forces. This is exacerbated by the challenging situation caused by the Trump administration’s decision to halt U.S. weapons supplies. intelligence The approach consists of three parts.

As stated, the Russian Armed Forces persist in engaging Ukrainian ground troops along the contact line using infantry and armored units, study As stated by the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank, Ukraine’s battle lines extend approximately 600 miles, which works to Russia's advantage due to their greater numbers. The report also notes that these conditions hinder mobility and lead to gradual depletion of forces through the use of first-person view (FPV) drones, Lancet drones, along with artillery deploying both high-explosive rounds and scattered landmines.

The AFRF has enhanced its deployment of UMPK glide bombs against Ukrainian forces occupying defensive positions," according to RUSI, referencing the conversion of conventional bombs into precision-guided weapons through added fins and navigational systems. The institute explained this shift presents a strategic quandary for the AFU: they must decide whether to maintain fixed defensive structures to minimize losses from drones and loitering munitions, or keep their units mobile to evade attacks from these powerful glide bombs capable of destroying heavily fortified locations.

The real novelty in this scenario is the substantial role played by the Russian Air Force in the conflict. Even though Moscow initially believed that air power would prove crucial for success in the land operations, the actual situation shows something different. Russian battlefield airpower has mostly been rendered ineffective by Ukrainian surface-to-air missiles. Russian aircraft have generally stayed far back from the frontline, beyond the reach of Ukraine’s air defense systems.

The secret to revitalizing Russian airpower has been an unexpectedly simple device: glide bombs. These are essentially conventional iron bombs fitted with wings and GPS guidance through the UMPK kit, transforming them into cost-effective precision munitions. The US has been utilizing similar technology. Joint Direct Attack Munition For 25 years, including significant deployment in the Middle East,JDAM has been utilized.

Russia began In 2023, Russia deployed glide bombs that astonished Western observers due to their potency. Initially viewed as individual threats rather than transformative elements or indicators of Russian despondency, they quickly demonstrated significant strategic value through rapid large-scale production. As highlighted by RUSI, although these weapons posed considerable risks independently, their capacity for mass deployment became pivotal. The Russian Air Force managed to deploy these glide bombs from beyond enemy lines, maintaining safety margins ranging from 30 to 90 kilometers [19 to 56 miles] based on the specific model’s range and effectiveness.

While Russian glide bombs may not match the precision of their Western equivalents, they compensate with greater destructive force. The JDAM series varies between 500 and 2,000 pounds, whereas Russia’s FAB-1500 comes in at approximately 3,500 pounds, and the FAB-3000 exceeds 6,000 pounds.

These explosives are so powerful that a close call with FABs can obliterate Ukrainian trenches and bunkers. According to RUSI, the surge in UMPK glide bomb production—from 40,000 units in 2024 to an expected 70,000 units in 2025—has led to a significant increase in casualties among Ukrainian forces during defense efforts. This shift has forced various military branches and departments to take extreme measures: avoiding detection entirely, dispersing widely, seeking cover underground, and relying heavily on unmanned or automated systems to engage enemies remotely without direct confrontation.

What Russia is actually doing is something it should have started implementing from the beginning of the conflict in February 2022: employing fundamental combined arms strategies like coordinating land assaults with aerial support, a practice that has been common since World War II. Even though Russia is using expendable assault troops For much of the war, Ukraine managed to effectively counter drones and glide bombs, allowing them to continue fighting even when vastly outnumbered and outgunned. However, with Russia now coordinating these three types of forces and weaponry more efficiently, Ukraine is finding it challenging to cope.

Nevertheless, Russia's aggressive trio is not a cure-all solution. issues within the Russian armed forces , like strict hierarchical management. It also hasn’t resulted in a significant strategic advantage for Russia, one of the globe’s leading manufacturers of military equipment, whose populace is roughly four times bigger than Ukraine’s. Despite this imbalance, Ukraine has managed to inflict substantial damage on advancing Russian forces through the use of fortified positions, unmanned aerial vehicles, and extended-range weaponry.

Ukraine's "approach to defense in depth and to imposing attrition at longer range has made it very costly for Russian forces to make gains," RUSI said. "This has limited Russia's ability to build up tempo or to exploit breaches in defense lines. While Russia has found an effective formula for inflicting heavy casualties on Ukraine, it has not found a successful formula for breaching defenses without taking massive losses in equipment and personnel."

Is NATO concerned about the offensive triangle? Western experts are already debating this topic. NATO should learn From Russia's aerial operations, and accumulate a substantial cache of inexpensive glide bombs.

Conversely, Russia has certain advantages over Ukraine that might not be relevant in a confrontation with NATO. Specifically, Russian aircraft can comfortably launch glide bombs from as far back as 60 miles beyond the frontline due to Ukraine’s limited air force and absence of advanced long-range air-to-air missiles. NATO air forces are much more powerful in air combat, suppressing enemy air defenses, and striking troops and supply lines.

Michael Peck is a defense journalist who has contributed articles to various platforms including Forbes, Defense News, and Foreign Policy magazine. He earned his Master’s degree in Political Science from Rutgers University. You can follow him on social media. Twitter and LinkedIn .

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